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07/23/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Telling the truth has never been much of a problem for me, especially with things that really aren't going to amount to much when Saint Peter is making the decision on whether I'm fit to enter the pearly gates.
Back in 1998, I was one of dozens of columnists that thought Ryan Leaf would be a better pro quarterback than Peyton Manning. Fast-forward 12 years and I'm one of the few that still admit to that error.
Heck, Leaf had the stronger gun and was actually a better athlete than Peyton at the time, but those kinds of measurables didn't take into account the 10- cent head and spotty work ethic that accompanied Leaf's million-dollar arm.
Hindsight painted me as a poor judge of talent and the former Washington State star as not only one of the biggest disappointments in NFL history but a felon. On April 14 of this year Leaf pleaded guilty in Amarillo, Tex. to seven counts of obtaining a controlled substance by fraud and one count of delivery of a simulated controlled substance. The court sentenced Leaf to 10 years of probation and fined him $20,000.
One little mistake shouldn't stop anyone from getting back on the horse, however, and I have done it many times over the years with some good predictions and some bad.
In 2008, I was back on the NBA beat and thought the Chicago Bulls should have taken Kansas State star Michael Beasley over Windy City native Derrick Rose.
It was certainly a defensible position. Beasley was one of the most dominant players in the country during his freshman campaign at K-State, averaging 26.2 and a nation's best 12.4 rebounds. His 866 total points and 408 rebounds ranked third and second, respectively, among all freshmen in NCAA history, and the Maryland native also led the nation in double-doubles (28), 40-point games (three), 30-point, 10-rebound games (13), and 20-point, 10-rebound games (22).
The resume' was there but the thing that put Beasley over the top for me was his size. At 6-foot-10 and 235 pounds, "Beastley" had the prototypical NBA body.
The Bulls made their decision and plucked Rose, while Miami settled for Beasley at No. 2. It certainly hasn't been the basketball equivalent of Manning-Leaf just yet, but you can bet Chicago is quite happy with its selection thus far. Rose was named Rookie of the Year in 2009. an All-Star in 2010 and has developed into one of the game's best point guards while Beasley has struggled mightily with the off-the-floor problems.
In September of 2008, Beasley was involved in an incident at the NBA's Rookie Transition Program along with fellow freshman Mario Chalmers and Darrell Arthur. Police responded to the hotel room of Chalmers and Arthur following a fire alarm and claimed that the room smelled strongly of burning marijuana, but none was found and no charges were filed. Beasley was eventually fined $50,000 by the NBA for his involvement in the incident after Heat basketball chief Pat Riley forced him to confess to league officials that he had slipped out the door when the police arrived.
Things worsened by the next year when Beasley checked himself into a Houston rehab facility, just days after he posted pictures of himself on Twitter with what looked like marijuana in the background. The forward also wrote a number of vague postings hinting at suicide.
Beasley emerged unscathed and actually improved most of his numbers during his sophomore season in South Beach but with Riley executing a plan to team Dwyane Wade with LeBron James and Chris Bosh, he was no longer part of the plan in South Florida.
The former second overall pick was shipped unceremoniously to the Twin Cities for a pair of second-round picks in order to clear much needed salary cap space.
One man's trash can be another's treasure and the rebuilding Wolves think they might have something in the supremely talented Beasley.
That said, Minnesota president of basketball operations David Kahn has quickly made it clear that the kid gloves are off, speaking very honestly about Beasley's perceived problems.
"Michael Beasley smoked too much pot in Miami, but he's a changed man now. Make that, changed young man," Kahn told a Minneapolis area radio station. "He's a very young and immature kid who smoked too much marijuana and has told me that he's not smoking anymore and I told him that I would trust him as long as that was the case."
It's conceivable the more laid-back, family-friendly Midwestern atmosphere is just what Beasley needs to turn over a new "Leaf" and finally become the player he should be.
"He has developed a really good support system around him this past season in Miami," Kahn said. "He is growing up -- he's not grown up. He's 21. If you had given me this kind of money and put me in this kind of world with these kinds of pressures attached to it and some of the demands, I don't know how well I would have handled it. I think that if Michael was 25 or 26, maybe I would have felt differently. Some of these kids simply deserve the opportunity to make mistakes and grow up."
<< Reutimann signs contract extension with MWR
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Reutimann has signed a multi-year
contract extension with Michael Waltrip Racing to remain as driver of the
No.00 Toyota through the 2012 Sprint Cup Series season.
Reutimann and team owner
<< Orioles activate Roberts from DL
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles have reinstated second
baseman Brian Roberts from the 60-day disabled list.
He had been sidelined since April 10 because of an abdominal strain suffered
while stealing second base in
<< Steelers ink Tomlin to extension
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Steelers extended the
contract of head coach Mike Tomlin through at least 2012, the team announced
on Friday.
In addition, the deal calls for an option year for 2013.
"Mike Tomli
<< Cowboys ink second-round pick LB Lee
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Cowboys have agreed to terms with
linebacker Sean Lee on a four-year contract.
The deal for the second-round draft choice is reportedly worth $1.7 million
guaranteed.
Dallas moved up four
Mika Miyazato leads Evian Masters >>
Evian-les-Bains, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mika Miyazato shot a five-under 67
to take the second-round lead Friday at the Evian Masters.
Miyazato finished 36 holes on the Evian Masters Golf Club with a nine-under
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Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vancouver Canucks defenseman Sami Salo is
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Finland while playing a
Indians activate Choo, disable Laffey >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians have activated
outfielder Shin-Soo Choo from the 15-day disabled list.
He had been sidelined since suffering a right thumb injury in a game against
Oakland on July 2 while att
St. Etienne's Sanogo out for three weeks >>
Saint Etienne, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Saint-Etienne forward Boubacar Sanogo
will be sidelined for three weeks with a thigh injury and could miss the start
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Sanogo left
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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