Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
02/10/2009 - Chestnut Hill, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two ACC squads trying to get back in the win column hook up at the Conte Forum tonight, as the Boston College Eagles entertain the 12th-ranked Clemson Tigers in Chestnut Hill.
The Eagles were in play just this past Sunday, when they were handled, 93-76, by Wake Forest. The loss brought the team's five-game winning streak to an abrupt end and dropped it to a still solid 18-7 overall and 6-4 within the conference. BC now returns back to the Conte Forum, where it has gone a respectable 12-3 on the campaign.
As for the Tigers, they trounced Duke (74-47) last Wednesday to catch the eye of any doubters, but on Saturday, they suffered a major letdown and were nipped at home by then unranked Florida State, 65-61. The surprising loss ended a three-game win streak by Clemson, which fell to 19-3 overall and 5-3 in league play. Still, with a triumph tonight, the Tigers would reach the 20- win plateau for the third straight season, a feat the program has never accomplished before.
Clemson leads the all-time series with BC, 6-3, and has won the last two meetings. The Eagles however, are a perfect 3-0 when taking on the Tigers in Chestnut Hill.
The Tigers are forcing opponents into 17.7 turnovers per game and they have capitalized on those miscues, averaging a hardy 78.1 pg on the season. Trevor Booker is the team's leading scorer (14.9 ppg) as well as rebounder (8.8 rpg) and he also has 53 blocks to his name. KC. Rivers has provided a nice complement to him with 14.2 ppg and 6.2 rpg, while Terrence Oglesby checks in with 13.0 ppg on the strength of 39.4 percent shooting from long range. On Saturday, Clemson let a 19-point second-half lead get away, as FSU closed out the game with a 23-4 run for the 65-61 upset. It was a complete collapse by the Tigers, who went just 6-of-24 from long range and were guilty of 18 mishaps. Booker and Demontez Stitt both scored 11 points to pace Clemson in defeat, while Rivers and Raymond Sykes chipped in with 10 points apiece.
The Eagles have done a sound job at the offensive end of the court this season, as they are scoring 76.4 pg and shooting 44.8 percent from the field. Tyrese Rice is one of the more talented players in the ACC and he leads BC in scoring (18.0 ppg), assists (5.5 apg) and steals (39). Joe Trapani puts forth 13.9 ppg and a team-best 6.8 ppg and he has shown off his range by knocking down 37.3 percent of his attempts from three-point distance. Rakim Sanders adds 12.0 ppg and 4.2 rpg to the lineup, while Corey Raji contributes 10.8 ppg and 6.4 rpg. On Sunday, the Eagles committed 15 turnovers that resulted in 23 points for Wake Forest in a 93-76 setback. BC actually held a one-point edge at the break before allowing WF to shoot a blistering 65.5 percent from the floor in the second stanza. Trapani guided BC with 19 points, while Rice had 18 points and six boards.
<< Boston University wins Beanpot
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Bonino, David Warsofsky and Colin Wilson
scored short-handed and Boston University won the 57th annual Beanpot
tournament Monday night with a 5-2 triumph over Northeastern.
Colby Cohen and Jas
<< Mizzou edges Kansas on last-second shot
Columbia, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Zaire Taylor hit the game-winning jumper with
1.3 seconds left to help 17th-ranked Missouri deal No. 16 Kansas its first
conference loss of the season with a 62-60 victory over the Jayhawks.
Taylor finis
<< Lombardi, Boyd help Flames burn Habs
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matthew Lombardi and Dustin Boyd scored short-
handed goals during the pivotal second period, as the Calgary Flames beat the
Canadiens, 6-2, sending Montreal to its eighth loss in 10 games.
Dion Phaneuf scor
<< Without All-Stars, Hornets get upended by Grizzlies
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie star O.J. Mayo scored 22 points and
pulled down 16 rebounds, as the Memphis Grizzlies defeated the undermanned New
Orleans Hornets, 85-80, in a poor shooting display at the FedEx Forum.
Mike Conley
State bragging rights on line, as Spartans visit Wolverines >>
Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - State and Big Ten rivals will collide in Ann
Arbor tonight as the Michigan Wolverines attempt to upset the ninth-ranked
Michigan State Spartans.
Michigan State owns a stellar 19-4 record this season, includin
Cavs and 'Noles square off in ACC tussle >>
Tallahassee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second time in less than three
weeks, the Virginia Cavaliers and the Florida State Seminoles will meet in an
ACC tilt, this time in Tallahassee.
On January 24th, Florida State beat Virginia in Charl
Cavs hope to bounce back from first home loss in Indy vs. Pacers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams on opposite sides of the Central Division
spectrum get together this evening, as the Cleveland Cavaliers pay a visit to
the Indiana Pacers at Conseco Fieldhouse.
The Central-leading Cavs are coming off their firs
Nuggets resume road trip in South Beach vs. Heat >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Northwest Division-leading Denver Nuggets hit a bump on
their eight-game road trip and will try to steer back on the right path
Tuesday evening against the Miami Heat at AmericanAirlines Arena.
Denver had a four-game w
Anybody who knows about online sports betting knows MySportsbook.com! They are probably the most famous offshore sports gambling website located on the web! After nearly 10 years of online sportsbook service, MySportsbook.com is still impressing their visitors with great customer service, live odds, fast payouts, and an easy-to-use website. MySportsbook.com has everything that die-hard sports fans want. For those looking to bet on all major sporting events, look no further. Make MySportsbook.com your one-stop shop for NFL football, college football, baseball, baseketball, boxing, and horseracing.
MySportsbook.com has one distinct advantage over all other online sportsbooks: They have been in the football gambling industry the longest and have served the most satisfied customers. So if you're in the market for a new online sportsbook for the next upcoming season, be sure to check out MySportsbook.com today! We are absolutely positive that you will not be disappointed with this company.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting lines needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting